Don't Panic. Trust the Plan.

Kemi Badenoch has things in hand.

The Conservative Leader of the Opposition hasn’t had much to smile about recently. In May, Kemi Badenoch’s net favourability rating fell to -39. While better than Sir Keir Starmer on -46, she was way behind Nigel Farage on -27.

Then, on 2 June, a YouGov poll on voting intentions showed the Conservatives languishing on 18 per cent, just four points behind Labour, but trailing Reform by ten.

Three days later the Tory vote in the bye-election in Hamilton collapsed from 17 per cent in the 2021 Holyrood elections to a negligible 6 per cent, with Reform sprinting ahead to 26 per cent.

So, it’s no surprise that panic is spreading among Conservative MPs and councillors, with rumours of regime-change in the party. Even Badenoch’s supporters will have nodded their heads grimly at Tom Peck’s mocking comment in the Times (“Political Sketch”, 7 June) that the Tory leader “is never happier than when making it clear that it’s far too early to have, say, any actual policies”.

But Badenoch’s brave strategy of holding her nerve and fire, while working things out, is the right one. Indeed, it’s the only adult one. While in government, the Tories haemorrhaged popular confidence because they overpromised and underdelivered—notoriously on immigration. Despite loud Brexit promises to ‘bring back control’ of our borders, net immigration in 2021-23 surged, increasing Britain’s population by over two million, equaling the previous decade’s total. If the Tories are ever to win back trust, they need to take time to understand what went wrong and work out how to deliver what they promise in future. The days of panicky shooting from the hip are over. There’s nothing more to be gained from it.

For an object-lesson in what happens when you fail to prepare properly while in opposition, look at Starmer’s government. His party spent so much time plotting to win power that it neglected to work out how to use it effectively.

Within three weeks of Labour’s triumph in last July’s General Election, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, suddenly announced she was going to pause, perhaps repeal, the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act 2023, which was poised to push back against the ‘woke’ repression of free speech in universities. An insider reports that university vice-chancellors had leant on her, because the act would have required them to make public their dependence on Chinese funding.